Numbers say ~72% apparent attenuation by day 14 (91% on the model) with ambient parked near 11.2°C. That is the boring outcome I want: no heroics, no shortcuts, just gravity doing its job. Still put a hydrometer in it — this is a trace, not a certificate.
Autumn Märzen
SG (model): 1.039 · ~38% of the way to recipe attenuation. Blowoff territory — CO₂ is leaving, heat is building in the cone. This is where temperature discipline actually matters, not where you 'set and forget' the thermostat.
Room air sits inside the ±3°C guard band vs the datasheet — no red flags from the cheap thermometer model. Do not confuse that with permission to get lazy on day five.
Under the hood: logistic curve, strain bias, pitch/O₂, stress knocking on kinetics. It is a screen trace — gravity in glass still wins every argument on the brew floor.