Numbers say ~74% apparent attenuation by day 14 (93% on the model) with ambient parked near 20.5°C. That is the boring outcome I want: no heroics, no shortcuts, just gravity doing its job. Still put a hydrometer in it — this is a trace, not a certificate.
Sierra Heritage Pale
SG (model): 1.018 · ~83% of the way to recipe attenuation. Foam is thinning; yeast is still chewing but the easy sugar is gone. If you are dry-hopping or spunding, do not pretend the tank is 'done' because it looks quiet.
Room air sits inside the ±3°C guard band vs the datasheet — no red flags from the cheap thermometer model. Do not confuse that with permission to get lazy on day five.
Under the hood: logistic curve, strain bias, pitch/O₂, stress knocking on kinetics. It is a screen trace — gravity in glass still wins every argument on the brew floor.